Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in response to Putin's words, said that European countries, in the event of a war with Russia, "will immediately apologize voluntarily," and added that he is waiting for Putin's order to "begin hostilities." According to him, Moscow "will not stand on ceremony, and the conflict will end quickly and not in Europe's favor."
Who is Kadyrov's empty bluster intended for? The "Russians" dreamed of taking Kyiv in three days in the same way! Having failed to achieve a single goal of their "special military operation"/terrorist Russian-fascist war in Ukraine in four years, the "Russian" pseudo-fantasists are raving about new mirages: "taking Europe in three and a half days"!
And again, my question to the leaders of the West: how long will this fiddling with the dead carcass of Russia continue? Hasn't it become clear that you are dealing with a large madhouse, which can only be cured through external management of this country by the West? History provides an excellent example of external management of West Germany after World War II.
Most likely, a large number of "Russians" will support a Western "special military operation" to change the terrorist and insane regime in Russia. The risk of war with Russia has long been discussed in the West. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, after the Russian president's loud statement, said that the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance could become Russia's next military target after Ukraine in the next five years. So what is the West waiting for? "The conflict is on our doorstep. Russia has brought war to Europe. We must be prepared for a scale of [hostilities] similar to what our grandfathers and great-grandfathers experienced. Imagine a conflict that affects every home, every workplace: destruction, mass mobilization, millions of displaced people, widespread suffering and losses. This is a terrifying thought, but if we fulfill our obligations, we can prevent a tragedy," the NATO Secretary General said.
A similar forecast was previously made by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius: in an interview, he stated that a war between NATO and Russia could begin as early as 2028-2029.
Putin's words about having no intention of fighting with Europe do not inspire confidence in many to the west of Russia's borders, given previous experience – the annexation of Crimea, the start of the war in Donbas, and finally, the full-scale invasion in February 2022. The Kremlin blames Ukraine itself and the "collective West" for starting the war, justifying its aggression by "protecting the Russian-speaking population" and "Nazism in Ukraine." Vladimir Putin demonstrated this once again during his "direct line" on December 19.
Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russian representatives also made statements similar to Putin's current ones. On February 15, 2022, the then Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, said that Russia would not invade Ukraine unless it was "provoked." As is known, there were no confirmed provocations from Ukraine, but Russia nevertheless launched a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022.
Today, discussions about a potential war between Russia and Europe have intensified against the backdrop of increased Russian provocations in EU and NATO countries this year. In early autumn, at least 19 "Gerbera" drones may have flown into Polish territory, and although fighter jets were scrambled to shoot them down, some drones traveled a distance of up to 250 kilometers. One of them crashed near Gdańsk, another almost reached Warsaw, and two more reached Łódź.
A couple of weeks later, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets with their transponders switched off violated Estonian airspace and remained there for 12 minutes.
There are also numerous reports of unknown drones circling over European airports, military and other facilities. The evidence suggests that some of the drones were launched from tankers of the so-called Russian "shadow fleet".
How great is Russia's subversive potential to force Europe to accept Moscow's terms without a "hot" phase of war?
How likely is an open war?
Colonel Otakar Foltýn of the Czech army, deputy head of the Military Office of the President of the Czech Republic and until recently the Czech government's coordinator for strategic communication, fully agrees with Boris Pistorius, who predicts war in the coming years. He notes that the position of the Baltic and Northern European countries on this issue is also "extremely clear."
"Unfortunately, Europe will not only face, but is already facing Russian aggression. All the incidents that have occurred on European territory, from the point of view of international law, are absolutely unambiguous acts of aggression. There is no doubt that not only in the case of a large-scale drone attack, but also in the case of violations of the airspace of the Baltic states by Russian military aircraft, we are talking about an act of aggression by the Russian Federation against European states," Foltyn is convinced.
Elizabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), notes that Europe should be prepared for a confrontation with Russia at any moment. Predicting the start of a war with Russia is difficult, Braw notes, because it can effectively start a war at the decision of one person – Vladimir Putin.
"That is why military leaders throughout Europe are saying that we must be prepared for something to happen tomorrow." "This, of course, could happen in five, ten years, or never at all, but we cannot rely on that," Braw warns.
Teemu Tammikko, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, says that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against Europe, trying to inflict damage that will not force the victim of aggression to resort to open warfare. However, the analyst does not believe that Russia is ready or able to attack European NATO countries at the moment or in the near future. He adds, however, that Vladimir Putin's regime largely relies on the existence of some kind of external threat, so in the long term, direct military confrontation is likely, especially if the war in Ukraine is frozen.
Teemu Tammikko believes that the main goal of the sabotage is to force European countries to invest in their own defense (for example, to protect against drones) instead of supporting Ukraine, and also to cause contradictions between allies, which undermines the effectiveness of joint response measures.
Elizabeth Braw notes that Russian provocations are draining European resources, both state and private. For example, airports cannot operate because of drones, causing both the airports themselves and airlines to lose large sums of money.
"It is in Russia's interest to continue to make life difficult here in Europe. These actions can also be used to test the resilience of the West, its reaction time, and so on. To see how Europe withstands the blow." "The ultimate goal could be either creating disruptions as an end in itself, or the first step towards a larger conflict," the analyst believes.
Is NATO's response too soft?
After Russia violated the country's airspace in September 2025, Marko Mihkelson of the Estonian parliament called for shooting down Russian planes, as Turkey did 10 years ago. At that time, a Russian Su-24, which, according to the Turkish side, was in Turkish airspace for 17 seconds, was shot down by a Turkish F-16. This idea was also supported by Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė and Czech President Petr Pavel.
Recently, Pavel, a retired general and head of the NATO Military Committee, again stated that NATO "should not endlessly tolerate continued violations of airspace by Russia." The alliance, according to Pavel, should give an "adequate response" to the aggression and demonstrate strength to Russia, since "the Russian Federation only recognizes strength, and considers restraint a weakness."
Zbigniew Brzezinski, a political scientist and professor who advised several US presidents on security issues, analyzed the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"If the war in Ukraine is an easy military success for Russia, a demonstration of its prowess, then we should expect something similar in the Baltic States. That's first and foremost. Further hotspots could be Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan," he said.
According to him, there are signs that the Kremlin is not going to stop, and the fears of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia regarding a possible Russian attack are quite justified. The political scientist added that modern Russia could repeat the scenario of the Soviet occupation of the Baltics in 1940. Further, according to Brzezinski, Russia could launch an offensive against Poland.
So what are WE waiting for?
Kristina Manessi
Freedom of Speech
